I'm not sure what to think about Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney's VP pick. The pick wasn't made to convince people like myself to vote for Mitt Romney, or to have people like me feel comfortable about Mitt Romney. If you look at the history of VP candidates for the Republicans, most of their choices have been to court what the press loving calls fly over country. Bush was an OK candidate but there were some reservations about his experience in politics, especially when attacking the big Washington juggernaut. With the choice of Dick Cheney as VP, it let those in fly over country know there would be a stern hand in the background. The press and the 'liberal elites' (Republican label) in Washington, New York and Los Angeles could point out all sorts of problems with Cheney before and after his term in office, but if you talk to folks in the Midwest, if you talk to folks who normally don't have talking heads advocating for them, those people like Cheney. Laugh if you will, but those same people are found of Dan Quayle. Why? Specifically because when Quayle took on the fictional character Murphy Brown about having a child out of wedlock, so many of the elite laughed and mocked him, probably for good reason, but when those same people see what we are facing today, they look at him as a truth speaker in the face of considerable opposition. He is a hero to them. And, need I say anything about the appeal of Sarah Palin to those same people?

VP choices aren't necessarily about trying to get votes from a certain state as in the past. To me, the choices have fallen into two categories. The first category is assuring both politicos and the citizens that there will be a stern figure behind the scenes to make sure all is right in the country. The selection of Cheney in the Bush White House signified someone who knew the backrooms of government and who could get things done if push came to shove. The same could be said to a lesser degree in 1980 when Reagan picked Papa Bush as his running mate. Reagan had the charisma and charm but Bush was a seasoned Washington politician who could possibly cut through the politics to get things done for the President. That seems to be the same logic used with Obama in picking Biden for Vice President. He needed someone who could cut through the political thickets of Washington to get the job done.

Republican Vice Presidential candidates from the past two Presidential election cycles (2008 and 2012) have been about progeny, if you look at it in a certain point of view. That is the second category. Dan Quayle, to be realistic, only offered youth to Papa Bush's campaign, but the implication was he would be groomed into the Presidency. He was considered a bold choice because of his weak record. Sarah Palin was of course a bold choice for McCain in the 2008 campaign. It became clear early in the campaign, as far as the Democratic nomination, it was going to be a historic choice. Either a woman or an African American would be their nominee. McCain had to choose someone who would energize the base of his party, who were lackluster to his nomination, plus get someone who was different than the standard Washington insider. Of all the people on the short list, Palin fit the bill. Of course it can be argued if she was the right choice, but for the matrix set up in the election, for McCain to have a shot of winning he had to go out of the box and Palin fit in with the progeny pattern. She might not be ready on day one but she would grow into the role, so the thinking went.

Paul Ryan is a bold pick because he represents both categories perfectly. While Romney was a Governor he's not what you would call a political insider. He needs someone who can navigate Washington. Romney isn't liked by the new base, the conservative tea party wing, of the Republican party. Yes, they dislike Obama and want to defeat him, but they aren't fired up by Romney. Paul Ryan is their darling. He has a Sarah Palin like appeal to that wing of the party. You already know there will be campaign ads showing Ryan when he was in budget talks with the President and when he forcefully defended his position. That is going to appeal to the Middle American voter because it will show him standing up to Obama. Ryan has been around Washington a long time but his star power is starting to rise now. He's still an unknown factor to most voters so he's going to be a blank slate to most Americans. Once his narrative comes out, he's going to look less like a progeny and more like a player.

Now, how does this choice hurt Romney? It hurts him in the category where he was always vulnerable, and that is with minorities and expansion of the base. There was no pick, not even Rubio or Jindal, who would allow Romney to make inroads with minorities. If he were to have gone that route it would have looked like a Sarah Palin move, where she was picked, I'm sure to some degree, because she is a woman. Republicans can't pander to groups like women or minorities because there are enough people given a voice in the party that will undermine any overtures to that. Ryan might help with some independents but he's not known enough at the moment. If the Romney campaign can present him correctly, or if the White House can't paint him in less than flattering way, it might help get a few more votes on the independent side but it won't be a massive shift.

It's those factors that make Ryan such an intriguing choice. He covers the political insider and progeny narratives seamlessly. He's seasoned enough to help Romney with the inner workings of Washington but he is just enough of an unknown and young enough to appear to be the future of the party under the tutelage of the elder statesman. Of all the names floated as potential running mates, he was the best choice. It's those factors, for me, that gives me uncertain feelings about this choice. If Romney and his crew can make few gaffes up until the convention (and judging by his crew that could be a challenge) and if the convention pageantry works well in firing up the Republican base, Romney may have a very good shot at becoming President.